Permaculture for Disaster Mitigation
Disaster management normally focuses on severe, sudden threats (floods, earthquakes, storm damage). Some of the potential disasters for Cascadia could cause extremely catastrophic regional damage - most notably the inevitable Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake, which could collapse dams, inducing a "Willamette Valley tsunami" that would kill at least thousands of people. Oregon's highway bridges built before the 1980s were not built to seismic safety standards (although some have been retrofitted since). Strengthening the "critical infrastructure" to withstand large earthquakes would take the remaining decades of the petroleum era.
Author James Howard Kunstler calls the converging crises of peak oil and climate change "The Long Emergency." While even the worst case scenario of the Cascadia earthquake would be a catastrophe that could level cities, it would be a terrifying couple minutes followed by years and decades of recovery and reconstruction. In contrast, the end of cheap oil and the end of a stable climate are problems that are likely to merely get worse and worse, without any end in sight.
| Eugene's Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan |
http://www.ci.eugene.or.us/HRRS/HazMitPlan.htm
(original web link before the
City "improved" its website)
Eugene/Springfield Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
www.eugene-or.gov/portal/server.pt?space=SiteMap&parentname=CommunityPage&parentid=0
&in_hi_userid=2&control=SetSiteMap&CommunityID=245&FolderID=363&Mode=0
the new web address for this important document is much harder to communicate
| Permaculture,
Preventative Perspectives on Disaster Planing (a response to the Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan) |
| Disaster | Severity | Likelihood | Timing | Mitigation |
| Flood | moderate to major | certainty | fluctuates due to climate | don’t build hospitals in floodplains |
| Winter Storm | moderate to major | certainty | erratic | duck and cover, replace urban hazard trees with fruit and nut trees |
| Landslide | localized | certainty | during floods or earthquakes | don't cut into steep hillsides, ban clearcuts |
| Fire | minor to major | certainty | droughts, July 4 fireworks risk | ban clearcuts, restoration forestry, better rural zoning, ban fireworks, fire safety awareness |
| Earthquakes | moderate to severe | certainty | could be years, centuries or next week | seismic upgrades to bridges and critical buildings |
| Volcanic hazards | moderate to severe | certainty | in our lifetimes? South Sister is dormant, not dead | don't build hospital where lahars (mud flows) could flow |
| Dam safety | catastrophic (the Willamette Valley tsunami) | unknown | most likely during severe flood or Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake | strengthen or remove dams, publicize danger zones and evacuation routes |
| Utility and Transportation disruptions | minor to major | certainty | winter storms, grid overload, drought, natural gas depletion, earthquake, flood | redundancy is needed, increase local energy generation (solar, wind, etc), improve train service to Portland |
| Hazardous Materials | minor to severe | accidents happen | low level pollution is ongoing and everywhere | better emergency response for accidents on the railroad, highways and at factories, ban toxic technologies in favor of non-toxic practices |
| Terrorism | minor to major if local or regional, catastrophic if nuclear or biological | possible | unpredictable | more social cohesion in the community, better foreign policy to reduce anger, expose 9/11 covert operation deliberately allowed to happen to create pretext to grab Iraqi oil and Afghan poppy fields) |